No data to show children will be affected in 3rd wave: AIIMS chief Randeep Guleria

Randeep Guleria

Dr Guleria cited that 60% to 70% of the children who got infected and got admitted to hospitals during the second wave in India, had either comorbidities or low immunity; healthy children recovered with mild illness without need for hospitalization.

COVID appropriate behaviour is key to preventing future waves

Director AIIMS explained why waves occur in any pandemic. Waves normally occur in pandemics caused due to respiratory viruses; the 1918 Spanish Flu, H1N1 (swine) flu are examples, said Dr Guleria. “The second wave of 1918 Spanish Flu was the biggest, after which there was a smaller third wave.”

And as we know, SARS-Cov-2 is a respiratory virus.

Multiple waves occur when there is a susceptible population: When a large part of the population acquires immunity against the infection, the virus becomes endemic and infection becomes seasonal – like that of H1N1 that commonly spreads during monsoon or winters.

Waves can occur due to change in the virus (such as new variants)
Since new mutations become more infectious, there is a higher chance for the virus to spread.

One of the reasons behind a wave can be human behaviour

Dr Guleria cautions: “Whenever cases increase, there is a fear in people and human behaviour changes. People strictly follow COVID Appropriate behaviours and non-pharmaceutical interventions help break the chain of transmission. But when unlocking resumes, people tend to think that not much infection will happen and tend to not follow COVID appropriate behaviour. Due to this, the virus again starts spreading in the community, leading potentially to another wave.”

The Director said that if we have to stop subsequent waves, we need to aggressively follow COVID appropriate behaviour until we can say that a significant number of our population is vaccinated or has acquired natural immunity. “When enough people are vaccinated or when we acquire natural immunity against the infection, then these waves will stop. The only way out is to strictly follow COVID appropriate behaviour”.

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